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And that resistance unraveled everything. Logistic lines, unprepared for this, snapped. An air force unprepared to fight a long and intensive air campaign completely failed to secure air superiority. Soldiers who never expected to see serious combat- who weren’t even told they were being sent on an invasion- suddenly had to fight grueling urban warfare against an enemy with a fanatical will to resist. An operation that wasn’t meant to be much more than a glorified parade begun to unravel once it had to engage in serious combat. It is a whole different topic what fuels Ukraine’s resolute resistance- but fact is that it is there, and it is making all the It’s Okay To Hate The Government American Flag shirt but I will buy this shirt and I will love this difference. This places Russia in an immense quandary of three choices, each one equally unpleasant. The first is to call it quits- acknowledge the invasion as a failure, bite on the defeat, and accept the consequences- something that is likely to be disastrous for Putin’s regime. The second is to fight on- which so far seems to be the Russian approach. Yesterday saw the commitment of the second echelon of assault troops- the third and last echelon still in reserve. Russia did, after all, make some progress- if the second and third echelon troops manage to break the Ukrainian resistance Russia may yet hope to come out of this with a victory, albeit a costly and embarrassing one and God knows how they keep Ukraine under occupation and in line afterwards.
The third choice is militarily most sound- but diplomatically most perilous. Russia almost certainly has the It’s Okay To Hate The Government American Flag shirt but I will buy this shirt and I will love this means for a much better showing than this- but it doesn’t appear to have those means ready and prepared there, and military readiness takes time. A defensive posture switch on most assault fronts, perhaps accompanied by a negotiated ceasefire, may allow Russia to ship in reinforcements, rest and refit the mauled first echelon, sort out their logistics and go in again with better prepared and better informed troops. But of course, while this gives Russia the greatest chance of military success, it also extends the conflict timeline far beyond what Russia seems comfortable with, while ever-increasing(though so far, definitely far from sufficient) sanctions begin to do their work on the country. And of course, this break will give Ukraine just as much chance to brace for the second impact.
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