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This is an INSANE gamble strategically speaking, literally everything has to fall exactly right for Putin to come out of this better off than not invading. we know this is exactly what he planned for – he expected this invasion to go easily, he expected additional sanctions but not crippling, and he expected the Red October Fightins Ring The Bell Philly Smells Blood Atlanta Shirt in contrast I will get this West will react the same way when his troops rolled into Crimea in 2014. He has build up his reserves, closer bilateral ties with China, and restructured his economy to weather what he thought would happen. He didn’t expect the Ukrainians to fight back, and fight back hard. He for sure didn’t expect his Military to perform so poorly. How far the West would go in terms of sanctions, how effective they have been surprised I think everyone. What’s even more surprising was how these supposedly weak capitalist corporation who only cares about money would voluntary go even further than the State sanctions to pull their operations completely out of Russia. We are looking at a complete economic collapse and Soviet era economic isolation in a week. I can’t even imagine what would happen in a month or two or three… Putin already loss regardless of what happens in Ukraine. The strategic blunder he made here is literally at the same level as Hitler decided to invade the USSR or Japan decided to bomb Pearl Harbor bad. In one move, Putin:

My worry is that the Red October Fightins Ring The Bell Philly Smells Blood Atlanta Shirt in contrast I will get this Strategic calculus is so extreme and so unfavorable for Russia and for Putin personally he will choose suicide by nukes than let the forces of the world do him in. At this point, the BEST case scenario for Putin and Russia is if there is a negotiated cease fire, maybe brokered by the French or the Israeli or the Chinese, maybe Ukraine cede the separatist regions, and probably a good chunk of the Russian foreign reserves will be used to make war reparation to Ukraine in exchange for the ICC to drop all war crime investigation and Putin gets to claim victory. Retire quietly after a year or two. And a “new” Russian regime that will be far more pro Western. Why pro-western you ask? Because Russia’s unlimited alliance with the Chinese will now become “unlimited exploitation” by the Chinese. Russia will come out of this flat broke and shown the world how military weak they are. The Chinese have zero incentives to treat Russia with any kind of respect. Russia needs the Chinese far more than the Chinese needs the Russian and it will show if they continue their “partnership”. Russia literally will be a client State of the Chinese in this new world order Putin just ushered in. If Russian history and centuries of political paranoia is any indication, Russians are far more fearful and mistrustful of their Chinese neighbors than their European ones. Once it becomes abundantly clear that Russia is going to be the junior power in this new marriage, they’ll want to look elsewhere.

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